"Current levels of U.S. and Russian long-range missiles are
double the level of 1970, when the nuclear NPT took effect.
Developing countries say that a projected cut in the number of
warheads to 7,000, although the lowest level since 1970, still
falls short of the treaty's promise of disarmament.
"Declared long-range warheads...
....................Russia & U.S._____France___China___Britain
1950 Early years ........ 299
1959 Buildup .......... 2,779
1970 NPT takes effect . 7,455
1989 Peak ............ 23,797
1995 Present level ... 16,900 ........ 500 .... 300 .... 250
2003 Promised 7,000
"Undeclared nuclear states ......... Israel____India___Pakistan
1995 Possess but don't admit ........ 200 ..... 20 ...... 10
"U.S. officials said that technically, Washington needs the
votes of just 11 more countries to get a majority at the 172-
nation conference and extend the NPT forever. But Washington
would consider that a foreign policy failure because it wants
support from a large portion of the estimated 80 or so undecided
countries.
"Otherwise, U.S. officials said, they fear the treaty could
lack sufficient moral and political authority to preserve global
support for nuclear nonproliferation....
"'Although a quarter century has elapsed since the treaty came
into force, no serious efforts have been made... to attain the
[disarmament] objectives that were clearly stipulated,' said
Ambassador Makarim Wibisono of Indonesia, whose country is the
chairman of the Non-Aligned Movement of 111 Third World
nations....
"Israel is the one country in the region that the Clinton
administration is not pressuring to endorse the treaty.
Following long-standing U.S. practice, the administration is
keeping its hands off Israel's nuclear policy... U.S. officials
say it is a waste of time to urge Israel to back the NPT because
the country long has relied on its nuclear arsenal as the
ultimate security guarantee and is highly unlikely to sign the
treaty....
"Only 13 countries--including North Korea, Thailand, and
Venezuela--have gone so far as to say they oppose the U.S. plan.
"... One benchmark of U.S. progress will be the stance adopted
by 22 Arab League nations at a meeting scheduled for late March.
... Another benchmark will be the position taken by a group of
Latin American foreign ministers at a meeting in Chile on March
28....
"In his speech this evening, Clinton is to reaffirm a
statement he made in May 1994 to visiting Indian Prime Minister
P.V. Narasimha Rao that the US supports the 'goal of elimination'
of nuclear weapons, as provided in the NPT. But a senior U.S.
official noted that achieving this goal remains highly unlikely
'in my lifetime.'"
******************************************************************
On March 29, 1992, an important editorial appeared in the
Washington Post by Arjun Makhijani (Institute for Energy and
Environmental Research in Takoma Park) and Katherine Yih
(International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War,
Cambridge, MA), entitled: "What to Do at Doomsday's End - How
the World Can Step Back from Nuclear Brinkmanship":
"The end of the Cold War has brought an abrupt end to the
logic of nuclear deterrence in which the nuclear superpowers
built vast strategic arsenals to deter their adversaries from
risking total destruction by launching a first strike.
"Today, possessing 'deterrent' weapons when there is no threat
only encourages other governments to seek their own 'deterrent'
capability in turn.
"Such proliferation increases the danger of nuclear war--and
leads to the inevitable conclusion that in the post-Cold War
world, achieving stable, long-term nuclear nonproliferation
requires a commitment to universal nuclear disarmament.
"Up to now, much of the international effort to combat the
spread of nuclear weapons has centered on the Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT), signed by most nuclear or nuclear-capable nations.
But some are non-signatories because they regard the NPT as
inequitable, and three of them--Israel, India and Pakistan--are
today de facto nuclear weapons states.
"The NPT has proven inadequate--even among the countries that
have signed it--because, among other things, the treaty
ENCOURAGES the transfer of civilian nuclear technology. This has
enabled numerous countries, including Iraq, to acquire expertise
for making nuclear weapons....
"We cannot make plutonium and other nuclear weapons materials
disappear overnight. They are long-lived and dangerous to
process. Yet in the near future we can eliminate the risk of
accidental nuclear war, demonstrate a commitment to nuclear
disarmament and make genuine progress towards
nonproliferation....
"We propose that the next step in the process started by
mutual U.S.-Soviet unilateral weapons reductions be THE REMOVAL
OF ALL NUCLEAR WARHEADS from all countries' delivery systems.
Warheads would be removed from missiles, ships and airplanes,
stored in containers designed to prevent an accidental nuclear
criticality and shielded from stray electrical signals.
"Warhead repositories, under international safeguards and
inspection, would become a key element in ushering in the new
nonnuclear age. Once in storage, it would take weeks to put the
weapons back into their delivery vehicles--perhaps even months
for some submarine-based weapons. Such a delay would have been
considered unacceptable when deterrence was the principal
objective.
"While it would be physically possible to rearm, it would
become politically more and more difficult to do so....
"Putting all nuclear weapons into continuously monitored
facilities would virtually eliminate the risks of accidental
nuclear war and radioactive contamination, reduce the risks of
covert sale of fissile materials and attendant proliferation
risks. Finally, removing weapons from worldwide patrol would
reduce the threat that near-nuclear weapons states feel from the
nuclear weapons powers, which they use as justification for
pursuing their own nuclear weapons programs....
"The heart of our proposal is that it be multilateral and
implemented by all nuclear weapons states...."
****************************************************************
The November-December 1993 Peace Courier (published in Europe)
analyzed the NPT in "The Bomb or Peace" by Jasjit Singh, a member
of India's National Security Advisory Board and Director of
Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses:
"The real problem is that ... the world has been led to
believe that nuclear weapons have kept the peace in Europe....
[This makes more and more countries want to have them as well.]
"Flaws in NPT: ... Treaty is discriminatory, but this is only
a small part of the problem. NPT has failed to meet its own
stated objectives, especially when judged against three critical
yardsticks--sound principles, efficiency, and security interests.
"The number of warheads proliferated from less than 12,000 in
1968 to 55,000 twenty years later. The twin objectives of non-
proliferation and disarmament set out in the NPT have not been
met....
"The NPT has also given nuclear weapons a certain legitimacy,
while at the same time tending to provide a false sense of
security. States which adhere to the Treaty as non-nuclear
weapon states are believed to be such, although the reality may
be different, as Iraq's example shows. South Africa secretly
built up a stockpile of at least six nuclear weapons. It joined
NPT in July 1991; its denuclearization will remain under
question. North Korea signed the NPT in 1985 but is pursuing a
weapon-related programme. Iran is a party to the Treaty but is
suspected by some of having a weapon-related programme."
****************************************************************
[February 13, 1994, Washington Post by Thomas W. Lippman, "For
Nuclear Arms Control Professional, Negotiating Treaty Extension
is Job 1; The Challenge of a Career: Ensure Nonproliferation in
14 months"]:
"...[Thomas Graham Jr] said his assignment is to get all 161
current signatories--soon to be 162, when Kazakhstan signs up--to
accept a permanent extension of the treaty in its current form,
with no time limit. Any additional countries that wish to sign
will be welcome, he said.
"The only nations certain not to participate, he said, are
Israel, India, Pakistan and Brazil, 'though it's conceivable that
Brazil might change its mind.'
"Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim said during a recent
visit to Washington that one reason his country would not sign is
that the NPT has not been effective: It did not prevent Iraq and
North Korea from obtaining nuclear weapons technology....."
****************************************************************
In April 1994 Peace Courier, Bahig Nassar, Coordinator, Centre of
Coordination among Arab Peace Organizations, wrote in
"Nuclear Weapons Disarmament and Non-Proliferation":
"...[W]e, in the Middle East, are very much concerned over the
issue [of nuclear weapons] owing to the Israeli possession....
"The US and Russian presidents jointly declared that their
missiles will no longer direct nuclear warheads at targets in
their countries. Other targets in other regions will be chosen
for their missiles.
"In this respect, it should be noted that the European members
of NATO and Russia have decided to establish their special Rapid
Deployment Forces which will be added to the USA-RDF. All these
forces are carrying nuclear weapons and all of them had been
established for interventions in the third world regions."
****************************************************************
On May 20, 1994, the International Peace Bureau in Geneva
Switzerland sent out to "colleagues" in the scientific community
a package of information, produced by the International Coalition
for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, which observed:
"A large number of states may have a secret nuclear capacity
or can obtain it. In addition to the five declared nuclear
parties to the NPT: USA, Russia, UK, France and China, there is
a number of states with declared or clandestine nuclear weapons
programmes.
"South Africa has recently admitted that it manufactured 6
nuclear weapons in the 1970's and early 1980's. These were later
dismantled, and South Africa has now joined the NPT regime,
accepting full international control of its nuclear facilities.
"Israel is believed to have a significant nuclear capacity,
even if this has never been confirmed officially. Israel also
has missiles with a wide coverage of the Middle East region.
"India and Pakistan have semi-officially declared that they
have a nuclear capability.
"Iran, Iraq and North Korea have demonstrated a desire to
obtain nuclear weapons, in spite of their participation in the
NPT. A total of 19 countries today have access to technology for
production of fissile material - uranium enrichment or plutonium
for reprocessing or both....
"It is important that socially responsible engineers and
scientists become active in support of non-proliferation. Your
support is essential...."
They outlined their suggestions "Towards the elimination of
nuclear weapons":
* A comprehensive test ban treaty (CTBT).
* Beyond Start 1 and 2, deeper cuts.
* Active promotion of Nuclear Free Zones.
* The illegality of nuclear free weapons (support World Court
Project).
* A Convention for the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
* Preservation of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: extension
of the NPT beyond 1995, conditionally; obligations of nuclear
weapons states should be fulfilled under Article VI; universalize
negotiations on participation.
* Strengthen the overall non-proliferation regime. Reform the
IAEA - end nuclear energy promotion and replace with safety,
safeguards, decommissioning,, waste disposal and verification of
nuclear disarmament agreements. Increase authority of the IAEA
to inspect, control plutonium and other weapons-grade material.
Establish control mechanisms for delivery systems.
* Develop an alternative system of security (nonviolent
cooperation).
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